Moorhead, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

231
FXUS63 KFGF 192316
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
616 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will continue to diminish through the evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The overall severe weather threat has ended across the region as
instability continues to wane and widespread subsidence starts
to take hold. This will give way to lingering showers through
the evening with the occasional lightning threat.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper troughing remains in place over central Canada, placing
the Dakotas and Minnesota under zonal to northwesterly flow
aloft. Several shortwave troughs, including one notable
traversing the region this afternoon, will move through this
flow over our region into next week. This keeps bouts of shower
and thunderstorm chances in the forecast, including severe
storms this afternoon (more details below).

However, shortwave ridging between shortwave troughs will allow
some reprieve from shower and thunderstorm chances, including
one this weekend that promotes mostly dry conditions. Within
this pattern, average to below average temperatures continue.

It isn`t until mid to late next week ensemble guidance suggests
synoptic pattern change to more upper riding over the central
CONUS with the upper troughing in Canada diminishing and
migrating eastward. This would promote a general warming trend
away from below average temperatures toward average to above
average temperatures. This also introduces more widespread
instability into the region for potentially subsequent storms to
utilize. However at this time, confidence is too low to comment
on potential for severe storms mid to late next week other than
there are no glaring signals for robust severe chances.

...Isolated severe storms this afternoon...

Shallow but stout shortwave trough and attendant surface
trough/cold front is traversing the region allowing showers and
storms this afternoon. While dew points only into the 50s and
temperatures remaining relatively cool into the 60s and low 70s,
there is unseasonably cold air aloft contributing to sufficient
instability to feed thunderstorms. Increasing wind speed with
height will also help organize convection. This keeps main
hazard of hail to size of quarters as the main threat. Couldn`t
rule out gusty winds to 60 mph either. This potential exists
mainly in west-central MN through 6 PM, but also into southern
Red River Valley.

Additionally, there is enough spin in the atmosphere (especially
along wind shift lines supplying ambient vertical vorticity for
updrafts to latch on to and tighten) to keep potential for
brief weak tornadoes to develop, particularly toward central MN
before 5 PM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to diminish through the
evening hours, giving way to VFR conditions through the end of
the TAF period. Winds will remain northwesterly through at least
early tomorrow afternoon, however given the relatively low
magnitudes, variable directions due to terrain impacts may
arise. Regardless, expect magnitudes to remain below 10 knots
and generally a northwesterly direction. No other aviation
impacts are expected.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Perroux